FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD c. egyetemi docens Budapesti Műszaki és Gazdaságtudományi Egyetem Gépészmérnöki Kar Energetikai Gépek és Rendszerek Tanszék ENERGETIKA GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS | BIZONYTALANSÁGOK FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD c. egyetemi docens FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK GLOBAL WARMING We have analyzed the most important global problem situation in the field of energetics This is the problem of global warming (climate change) FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK PROVEN FACTS The average surface temperature of the earth increases. The CO2 content of the atmosphere increases. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 1st UNCERATINTY It is not proven unambigously the exact connection (cause-effect relation) between the two processes. CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION!!! FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 1st UNCERTAINTY There is an uncertainty regarding the cause of the global warming process. (It isn’t fully excluded, that beside human activities other factors (unknown for us) play a decisive role in the process). FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK SUPPOSITION 1 Let us suppose: there is causal relation between the increase of CO2 content of the atmosphere and the increase of average surface temperature. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK SAFETY CONSIDERATONS Because of safety considerations we suppose that the human activity (anthropogen CO2-emission) results in global warming. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

possible damages and consequences Are known (are quantified) the possible damages and consequences (climatic, economic consequences, changes etc.) of global warming? FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 2nd UNCERATINTY There aren’t proven unambigously (are not quantified) the exact impacts and consequences of climate change. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE NOT UNAMBIGOUSLY NEGATIVE Decrease of the heat demand Increase of the agricultural land in the nordic countries. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK SUPPOSITION 2 Let us suppose: there is a global consensus regarding the anti-climate change policy, and the whole humankind do its best for preventing climate change. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 3rd UNCERTAINTY Provided that there is a global consensus regarding the anti-climate change strategy and all possible means (needed capital + BAT) will be employed for limiting the global warming It isn’t fully excluded, that the humankind cannot stop (or at least limit) global warming. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK OTHER SOLUTIONS IT IS NOT EXCLUDED THAT THE OPTIMUM SOLUTION WOULD BE TO PREPARE OURSELVES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK SUPPOSITION 3 Let us suppose: there is a real chance for blocking climate change. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

MEANS FOR BLOCKING CLIMATE CHANGE Is there a consensus regarding the optimum means for preventing climate change? FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 4th UNCERTAINTY It is not clear the basic principle of emission reduction (there is no consensus regarding this problem). FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK 5th UNCERTAINTY The most effective CO2-reduction could be reached in the developing countries but They don’t have enough capital (money) to implement it. FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK

GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK PROBLEMS There is unequal distribution of possibilities for using renewable energy sources (for example: Sweden contra Mauritania for using PV solar technology). FAZEKAS ANDRÁS ISTVÁN PhD | ENERGETIKA | EN_M006 GLOBÁLIS FELMELEGEDÉS BIZONYTALANSÁGOK