Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Use of ALARO/AROME products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) Zsolt Pátkai Weather-forecast.

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Use of ALARO/AROME products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) Zsolt Pátkai Weather-forecast Division Hungarian Meteorological Service Forecasters meeting Ankara, 10-11 Sept 2014

www.met.hu Outline -Basic information of HMS -Modeling at HMS -Use of ALARO/AROME outputs -Case studies

www.met.hu Basic information about HMS

www.met.hu Basic information about HMS -HMS has about 195 employees -Nearly 30 forecasters in two division (Weather forecasting Division, Division for Aviation and Severe Weather Forecasting) -3 radar station (a new one has been built, test period is running) -More than 250 automatic weather station (150 new station this year in cooperation with the General Directorate of Water Management)

www.met.hu Modeling at the HMS (ALARO, AROME) Global Model (ECMWF) Regional Model (ALARO) 4 times a day (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC) up to 48 hour Local Model (AROME) 4 times a day (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC) up to 48 hour Local data assimilation…

www.met.hu Modeling (ALARO, AROME) -ALADIN 1998-2012 -ALARO since 2012 -49 vertical level, 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution -Local data assimilation: SYNOP, TEMP, AMDAR, NOAA and MSG satellites (GPS tested) -AROME since 2011 -60 vertical level, 2,5 km horizontal resolution -Local data assimilation: SYNOP, TEMP, AMDAR (Radar reflectivity, Doppler Radar wind, MSG, GPS tested)

www.met.hu Use of ALARO/AROME products (1) -Direct output data for the Hungarian Electricity Transmission System Operator (MAVIR): -wind speed, direction for the areas of wind turbine parks, 15 min. timesteps -data service earlier from ALADIN, now from AROME

www.met.hu Use of ALARO/AROME products (2) Displaying forecast data via our HAWK visualisation system (Hungarian Advanced WorkStation)

www.met.hu Use of ALARO/AROME products (3) Visualised weather information for the new upcoming aviation meteorological website. Maps based on AROME

www.met.hu Is a local model better than a global? -Two mini-case studies on precipitation forecast: -30. july 2014 -31. august 2014 -The answer isn’t so clear -First case: 30.07.2014. cold drop and it’s precipitation

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION

www.met.hu Case 1: What about AROME runs? (30.07.2014. 0, 6, 12 UTC)

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC

www.met.hu Second case: 31. 08. 2014. Heavy precipitation in the central part of Hungary, which wasn’t forecasted well

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF

www.met.hu More experiences (1) -Precipitation: -Significant overestimation of precipitation amount in summertime (AROME) -Wind: -Common overestimation of 10 m wind gusts caused by thunderstorms (AROME) -2m Temperature -more or less accurate in AROME, significant underestimation in ALARO -Within one model run it can be good and bad forecast periods and areas as we saw earlier

www.met.hu More experiences (2) In general: a local model could be more helpful to detect mesoscale weather systems, due to 1 hour time step fields and the nonhydrostatic physics. (Even if their intensity, location or timing have more or less error.)

Kékestető (1015 m), the highest point in Hungary emergs from the inversion clouds A typical winter situation - inversion Mostly in early winter a persistent layer of stratus forms at about 6-900 m over the Carpathian-Basin 36

www.met.hu Wintertime stratus cases -Fog is formed during the night, which does not dissolve during the day, it elevates and forms a stratus layer -The cloud top radiates out considerably  CTT can decrease even during day  condensation at cloud top  fog elevates -Wintertime low cloud cases over Hungary are a great challange for operational NWP models

www.met.hu T2m: +1, -2 T2m: -3, -9 MSG image 01.02.2011 12 UTC MSG image 01.02.2011 12 UTC+synop dates 38

www.met.hu 2011-11-30 00 UTC (+0 h) ARPEGE AROME MSG

www.met.hu 2011-11-30 14 UTC (+14 h) ARPEGE AROME MSG

www.met.hu Wintertime stratus cases -Sensitivity experiments  tuning of microphysics results in an improvement of simulated low cloud cover -The proposed change in microphysics does not change significantly the model behaviour in other cases -We are curious, how it will work in the coming winter season

www.met.hu Wintertime stratus cases REF TEST TEST-REF Test results:

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Köszönöm a figyelmet! Thank you for your attention!

www.met.hu Spare slides

www.met.hu Case 3: 31. 07. 2014. (next day)

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC

www.met.hu Verification results

Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Use of ALARO/AROME products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) Zsolt Pátkai Weather-forecast.

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Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Use of ALARO/AROME products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) Zsolt Pátkai Weather-forecast.

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