Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Use of ALARO/AROME products at the Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS) Zsolt Pátkai Weather-forecast Division Hungarian Meteorological Service Forecasters meeting Ankara, Sept 2014
Outline -Basic information of HMS -Modeling at HMS -Use of ALARO/AROME outputs -Case studies
Basic information about HMS
Basic information about HMS -HMS has about 195 employees -Nearly 30 forecasters in two division (Weather forecasting Division, Division for Aviation and Severe Weather Forecasting) -3 radar station (a new one has been built, test period is running) -More than 250 automatic weather station (150 new station this year in cooperation with the General Directorate of Water Management)
Modeling at the HMS (ALARO, AROME) Global Model (ECMWF) Regional Model (ALARO) 4 times a day (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC) up to 48 hour Local Model (AROME) 4 times a day (0, 6, 12, 18 UTC) up to 48 hour Local data assimilation…
Modeling (ALARO, AROME) -ALADIN ALARO since vertical level, 8 x 8 km horizontal resolution -Local data assimilation: SYNOP, TEMP, AMDAR, NOAA and MSG satellites (GPS tested) -AROME since vertical level, 2,5 km horizontal resolution -Local data assimilation: SYNOP, TEMP, AMDAR (Radar reflectivity, Doppler Radar wind, MSG, GPS tested)
Use of ALARO/AROME products (1) -Direct output data for the Hungarian Electricity Transmission System Operator (MAVIR): -wind speed, direction for the areas of wind turbine parks, 15 min. timesteps -data service earlier from ALADIN, now from AROME
Use of ALARO/AROME products (2) Displaying forecast data via our HAWK visualisation system (Hungarian Advanced WorkStation)
Use of ALARO/AROME products (3) Visualised weather information for the new upcoming aviation meteorological website. Maps based on AROME
Is a local model better than a global? -Two mini-case studies on precipitation forecast: -30. july august The answer isn’t so clear -First case: cold drop and it’s precipitation
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO GFS ECMWF OBSERVATION
Case 1: What about AROME runs? ( , 6, 12 UTC)
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 0 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 12 UTC AROME 6 UTC
Second case: Heavy precipitation in the central part of Hungary, which wasn’t forecasted well
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT ALARO OBSERVATIONAROME ECMWF
More experiences (1) -Precipitation: -Significant overestimation of precipitation amount in summertime (AROME) -Wind: -Common overestimation of 10 m wind gusts caused by thunderstorms (AROME) -2m Temperature -more or less accurate in AROME, significant underestimation in ALARO -Within one model run it can be good and bad forecast periods and areas as we saw earlier
More experiences (2) In general: a local model could be more helpful to detect mesoscale weather systems, due to 1 hour time step fields and the nonhydrostatic physics. (Even if their intensity, location or timing have more or less error.)
Kékestető (1015 m), the highest point in Hungary emergs from the inversion clouds A typical winter situation - inversion Mostly in early winter a persistent layer of stratus forms at about m over the Carpathian-Basin 36
Wintertime stratus cases -Fog is formed during the night, which does not dissolve during the day, it elevates and forms a stratus layer -The cloud top radiates out considerably CTT can decrease even during day condensation at cloud top fog elevates -Wintertime low cloud cases over Hungary are a great challange for operational NWP models
T2m: +1, -2 T2m: -3, -9 MSG image UTC MSG image UTC+synop dates 38
UTC (+0 h) ARPEGE AROME MSG
UTC (+14 h) ARPEGE AROME MSG
Wintertime stratus cases -Sensitivity experiments tuning of microphysics results in an improvement of simulated low cloud cover -The proposed change in microphysics does not change significantly the model behaviour in other cases -We are curious, how it will work in the coming winter season
Wintertime stratus cases REF TEST TEST-REF Test results:
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT Köszönöm a figyelmet! Thank you for your attention!
Spare slides
Case 3: (next day)
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC
Alapítva: 1870 ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI SZOLGÁLAT AROME 6 UTC OBSERVATIONAROME 18 UTC AROME 12 UTC
Verification results