Arab Spring Lt. Col. JÁNOS BESENYŐ (PhD)
Think about it… What comes to mind when you think about the Arab Spring? Is it revolution? What is a revolution? Why now? Why this region? Is it over and/or was it successful? What was/is the significance? Effect on Europe? USA?
History Unexpected social and national movement which started in Named “Arabic Spring” to make a reference to the people spring from 1848, 1968, and 1989 Tunis: The self-immolation of a street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi (26) in the town of Sidi Bouzid - protest - „Jasmin Revolution” - President Ben Ali ousted, and government overthrown. Egypt: Khaled Said beaten dead by police - protest - President Hosni Mubarak ousted, and government overthrown. Libya: civil war, UN, NATO, EU, USA role - intervention - Kadhafi overthrown Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain: Civil uprisings against the governments, despite government changes. Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman: Major protests implementing government changes in response to protests. Algeria, Iran, Mauritania,Western Sahara etc.: protests without changes Civil War in Syria
Characteristics Arab, not Sectarian (in general) Lower classes, Students, Laborers, Military Populist Role of the Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc.) Civil Resistance (strikes, protests, and demonstrations) U.S. supported authoritarian regimes After a short period western countries support the Arab Spring
Causes Demographic structural factors (demographic boom, desertification, lack of drinking water) Current economic crisis, inflation, living standards decrease (middle class), unemployment, extreme poverty concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats, tribalism A young, educated (literacy rates, availability of higher education), and idol populace Lack of perspective for youngsters Democratic deficit: dictatorship & authoritarian regimes Human rights violations Government corruption, nepotism Expression of liberty
contestation Interests of external actors Non violence No leadership Use of facebook, internet Domino effect. Rebuild geopolitics : Security, economy, oil…
Impact of the Arab Spring Egypt got closer to Iran, but other sunni countries afraid from shiite „empire” Islamist freedom – salafists, etc. – stronger position Sharia law Christian winter Security challenges to westerner countries Migration Most of the earlier problem are still exist
Was/Is it a Revolution? American & French Revolution Radical overthrow of government Republicanism Class struggle to change the nature of politics and society Occurred in a single geographical area Development of nationalism Arab Spring A wave of protests, strikes and demonstrations Some overthrown of governments Class struggle Minority groups Regional influence New identity? Arab Nationalist?
Questions ? A new mediterrean Union ? A democracy from “inside” ? Risk of fundamentalism ? The decline of the big power ? US, EU ? The raise of new mediators ? Turkey ?
What is coming?
Biography János Besenyő, Viktor Marsai: The first anniversary of the „Arab Spring” – What kind of change have taken place since then- Tradecraft Review, Periodical of the Military National Security Service, 2012, 2. Special Issue, pp. 5-16, János Besenyő, Roland Gömöri: Arab Spring, Christian Fall? – The situation of Christian minorities in the Middle East after the Arab Spring – International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Herzliya, június,
QUESTION? THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!